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Diverse challenges for the cities
Film adaptations of the end times like to portray the big city of the future as a horror scenario: highly overpopulated, crime-ridden, filthy, gloomy megacities suffocating in traffic. Fortunately, alongside these dystopias, there are positive drafts:
- Clean cities with lots of greenery,
- where people garden together,
- move through networked megacities in electric cars,
- Share means of transport such as bicycles, electric scooters and electric cars
- and live in energy efficient buildings with affordable rent.
The environmentally friendly, sustainable smart city is still a utopia. But it shows exactly what people are missing today. Today’s problems are reflected in the vision of networked cities with clean air and functioning traffic concepts.
As part of the “Morgenstadt” research project, experts from the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft are working on ways to make life in cities more livable. They not only rely on ingenuity, but above all on technical innovations and role models. What already works quite well in Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands – the increased use of electromobility, electricity from alternative energy sources and the bicycle as the main means of transport in inner cities – is still in its infancy here.
Germany has around 82 million inhabitants. One in three lives in a large city with at least 100,000 inhabitants. 79 German cities have long since exceeded this number of inhabitants. As the population grows, so do the problems in the metropolitan areas:
- The volume of traffic and the fine dust pollution are immense.
- More and more green spaces have to give way to industrial buildings and parking lots.
- Housing is hardly affordable anymore.
- Poverty is growing in the big cities.
- The littering of public spaces is increasing.
Status Quo: The importance of cities in the future
With 230 inhabitants per square kilometer, Germany is a relatively densely populated country . The vast majority of people, 77 percent of the population, live in cities. Just 15 percent prefer living in villages with fewer than 5,000 people. However, the boundaries between town and country are not always clearly defined.
Working people who live in rural areas often commute from the suburbs or neighboring villages to work in the nearest district town or city. After all, 44 percent of people long for life in the country, according to a representative survey for “The Great Germany Study” by the television channel ZDF. However, it is precisely young, well-educated people who are drawn to the cities. There they will find the coveted jobs and career opportunities.
Growing attractiveness of cities
Especially, but not only in the new federal states, many regions suffer from rural exodus. Where professional opportunities are lacking, the young population migrates to the big cities.
The Institute for Economic Research (IW) Cologne has dealt with the number of academics in Germany’s administrative districts. The result: The academic intelligentsia prefers metropolises . Purchasing power is high where educated people settle. As a rule, they find work with interesting, often internationally active employers. In addition, the average age of the population is lower.
It was different two decades ago: on average, the urban population was even a year older than the rural population. Today, rural people are aging and villages often lag behind the cities in terms of shopping, quality of life, cultural and social offerings.
Anyone who suspects an east-west divide and assumes that academics prefer the west will be surprised: the ten areas with the lowest number of academics are in western Germany. Jena has the highest proportion of university graduates at almost 40 percent.
aging of the villages
When young people leave their village home, fewer children are born. As a result, kindergartens and schools are closing. Without educational and shopping opportunities, medical practices, pharmacies, lively gastronomy and tourism, the quality of life for the remaining population decreases. Two groups in particular suffer from this:
- older people who cling to their region.
- Children and young people for whom there are no meaningful employment opportunities in the countryside.
In order to be able to take care of themselves in everyday life, seniors often have no choice but to accept further distances. But what if they are no longer sufficiently mobile and able to use public transport or their car? Apart from that, public transport in rural areas is often insufficiently developed.
As soon as young people have finished school and are looking for an apprenticeship or university place, they usually move away. Very few are willing to commute to the nearest district town every day.
Suburbs as points of interest
However, there are huge differences between village-like suburbs near cities and villages that are far off the beaten track in the countryside. Smaller towns are thriving around big cities. They grow and are extremely popular with working people.
- That’s not surprising. I go to the (big) city to work. That’s where the money is made. Living is tranquil in the village. This is how commuters combine the best of two worlds:
- On weekdays you benefit from the well-developed infrastructure of the big city. There are lucrative jobs, a wide range of educational opportunities and cultural and sporting opportunities.
The suburb scores with less traffic, better air and less noise pollution. In addition, the rents are usually lower and the living space is more spacious. This leaves more of the hard-earned income at the end.
Young graduates and career starters in particular are initially drawn to the big city. Once they have found their partner for life there, private life becomes more important. A shared apartment is needed. Maybe children are planned in the long run. That means the space requirement is growing. In view of the rising real estate prices in the big cities, the surrounding areas are becoming more attractive again .
Which cities are particularly popular?
The Bavarian state capital Munich is particularly popular. This is the result of “The Great Germany Study” , which was carried out on behalf of the television station ZDF. The number of residents is expected to grow from one and a half million people to 1.7 million people in the next three years. Living space in Munich is hardly affordable anymore. If you don’t just want to rent there, but also want to buy property, you can expect an average price per square meter of 7,500 euros.
What must not be forgotten: Not only Germans, but also immigrants prefer to settle in cities. According to the economic research institute IW Cologne, 20 percent of newcomers to the cities are asylum seekers. One reason is that they are more likely to connect with other people from their homeland than in the countryside.
Large German cities enjoy a good reputation abroad. In the ranking of the British magazine “Monocle” , Munich came third in 2019. Hamburg made it to seventh place, Berlin to ninth place.
Medium-sized cities are growing
However, not only metropolises are attractive for young people. Medium-sized cities are also a magnet for new residents. In southern Germany, Fürth (population 124,171), Bamberg (population 75,734) and Passau (population 188,904) top the list. In the east, Chemnitz (population 243,521), Magdeburg (population 235,723), Schwerin (population 95,668) and Erfurt (population 210,118) attract the most people.
What makes the medium-sized cities attractive are well-developed educational institutions, interesting job offers, extensive cultural and sporting leisure opportunities and – compared to the big city – more affordable living space.
Wishes for an environment worth living in
What does it look like, the lovable and livable city of the future? What does the population imagine? To find out, the Berlin-based German Institute for Urban Studies (Difu) surveyed 6,612 people from more than 1,000 cities and communities about their vision.
The “City of the Future” was at the center of the “Science Year 2015” of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) . The survey took place as part of an exhibition on the ship MS Wissenschaft. It crossed 41 cities in Germany and Austria and dealt with the questions:
- What distinguishes a city?
- How does a city work?
- How do our cities become sustainable?
Between April and September 2015, visitors to the exhibition and users of the website had the opportunity to comment on their vision of the city. The aim of this non-representative survey was to capture a mood picture. In their visions, respondents automatically solve the most pressing problems cities are currently struggling with.
Livable social and recreational spaces
Cities are social organisms. It is important that the population finds an affordable infrastructure. This includes:
- jobs
- educational offers
- Health care
- a functioning transport system
- affordable housing
- recreation and leisure activities
Green oases mean relaxation. Nature increases well-being and quality of life. Almost 85 percent of those surveyed therefore find public green spaces and parks important in the Smart City of the future. The focus here is on relaxation and leisure time: “ There are many parks and green areas where I can move or relax ”, is the most frequently chosen statement.
When they think of green spaces, more than half of the study participants think of the creation and cultivation of gardens and kitchen gardens: “There are many gardens in which people grow vegetables together.” They expect that more food will be produced in this way.
Here the longing for community is reflected, but also the desire for organically produced food and nature experience. Gardening together connects people who are pursuing a meaningful activity together. At the same time, dealing with plants creates a balance to the hectic city life. In many communities there are already projects for such community gardens.
“Urban Gardening” is the name of the trend that actually started in New York in the 1970s. In the meantime, people in large German cities also garden in courtyards, on house roofs, balconies and terraces. This is partly due to the desire for more self-sufficiency. The desire for a piece of green in the gray living space and for a beautification of the city environment also play a role.
At the same time, people are creating a new habitat for insects and birds. The variety of crops grown is often even greater than on land.
The participants in the survey find social interaction, less anonymity and more cohesion in the city districts important in view of digitization. The focus is on solidarity, inclusion and heterogeneity.
Requirements for a safe environment
Smart solutions are required to ensure that large cities remain liveable and offer both locals and visitors a safe environment. As the population grows, so do security requirements. People must be protected from crime, but also from natural disasters caused by extreme weather conditions and technical failures in the relevant infrastructure.
Surveillance via security cameras offers protection against crime. Smart algorithms are already recognizing whether a threat is imminent. They are used at typical hot spots such as train stations and airports. If people are noticed who behave suspiciously, or if abandoned luggage is left unattended in central locations, the camera reports its observation to the security service.
Video cameras also register when people collapse in public places and need medical care. You alert the emergency services yourself. Danger zones on the road can also be identified in this way. To do this, the system examines accidents that happen in a specific area. Based on this data, the traffic in the corresponding route section can be regulated more sensibly.
In the city of the future, security also means that residents can rely on a smooth energy supply. Hospitals and telecommunications companies should also work without failures.
In the future, the requirements will in all likelihood become more demanding. Experts assume that the proportion of the city’s population will increase by around ten percent by 2050.
Requirements for a clean environment
The littering of public space is referred to as “littering”. Town festivals, festivals and demonstrations usually leave towns and public spaces littered with rubbish. Beverage cans and bottles, empty snack packaging, plastic, cigarette butts – everything is carelessly dropped on the spot.
Hardly anyone could imagine a littered environment as the “city of the future”. Positive, motivating messages on rubbish bins are more helpful here than pointing fingers. The Smart City cannot avoid the introduction of a sensible waste disposal and recycling system.
Functioning transport infrastructure
In European cities, roads, parking lots and traffic sometimes take up half of the city area. Nevertheless, there can often be no question of a functioning transport infrastructure:
- At peak times, people commuting by car are stuck in traffic jams.
- Trams are hopelessly overcrowded.
- Train travel is expensive and unreliable.
- There is not enough parking space.
Various environmental organizations complain that Germany is missing all environmental goals in relation to traffic. Road construction does not contribute to a reduction in pollutant and fine dust pollution or to a reduction in noise. In addition, road construction increases traffic but not mobility.
Autonomous vehicles could offer a solution to the traffic problem, but also more electromobility. The vast majority, 79 percent of the Difu study participants, would prefer to walk, cycle, use public transport or use car sharing in the inner city of the future. The choice of means of transport reflects people’s growing environmental awareness:
- Bicycle/electric bicycle: 47 percent
- Public transport (bus and train): 22 percent
- Own car: 21 percent
Functioning supply structures
While online trade is booming like never before, stationary trade is threatened with extinction, at least in villages and small towns. Surprisingly, surveys show the longing for local shopping:
As before, many prefer to shop in small shops in the immediate vicinity. Children and young people mainly equip their future city with shopping centers and shops in the city center in order to be able to fulfill their consumer wishes there.
How people want to shop in their future city:
- in large shopping malls: 19%
- in downtown shops: 26%
- in small shops in the neighborhood: 40%
- online 15%
Functioning digital structures
The city of the future should become smarter and more digital. Fast internet is a must for the internet of things, for example. Digitization allows all essential areas of life to be networked. These include, for example, a needs-based energy supply, sensible waste disposal and flexible, individual mobility solutions.
Masdar City is a first attempt to realize this idea of a completely networked city, which still seems like a utopia. The model project is being built in the middle of the desert in the United Arab Emirates. The construction project is scheduled to be completed in 2030. The eco-city relies on energy autonomy, electromobility and shady architecture.
Requirements for an ecological city
Since the year 2000, comprehensive measurements of particulate matter with a particle size of PM10 have been taking place. These are tiny parts that have an aerodynamic diameter of 10 microns or less. Since 2008, PM2.5 particles have also been measured. Particulate matter concentrations are particularly high in urban areas. Particulate matter is caused by:
- Hausfeuerungsanlagen
- commercial establishments
- industrial plants
- Road traffic (this is due to (diesel) soot, but also tire abrasion on the asphalt)
In the early 1990s, the exposure was higher than it is today. The annual average was 50 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m³). Today, annual mean PM10 values range between 15 and 20 µg/m³. The smaller the fine dust particles are, the deeper they penetrate into the human body:
- Particles of the size PM10 reach the bronchi through the nose.
- Particles of size PM2.5 reach the bronchioles and alveoli.
- Particles as small as 0.1 µm find their way into lung tissue and the bloodstream.
In terms of health, this is not without consequences. In addition to irritation of the mucous membranes, local inflammations in the throat area, in the trachea and in the bronchi are also possible. There is also increased plaque formation in the blood vessels. This leads to an increased tendency to thrombosis. Effects on the autonomic nervous system are also a risk.
A city of the future should be a green city with clean air . By switching road traffic to autonomous and / or electric vehicles, some of the polluters have already been eliminated. When planning and realizing a smart city, a holistic approach is crucial. The human is the center of attention. Conservation of resources, sustainability and clean air ensure a pleasant living climate in the city.
Ratio of usable areas and city green
From space you can see how “green” our 79 major cities are these days . For this purpose, the Berliner Morgenpost analyzed 185 satellite images: the winner was the city of Siegen. There, 86 percent of the areas are planted. In addition to public green spaces, fields and forests, this also includes planting on private property. It doesn’t matter if the green spaces are on the ground or on the roof. After Siegen, the cities of Göttingen and Bergisch Gladbach follow.
A look at the megacities shows that Hamburg is particularly green of the metropolises. Hanover is seventh, Berlin eighth.
In order to create green spaces in cities in the future, space will be needed. However, the growing population needs space. On the one hand, cities will probably expand, possibly to the suburbs. On the other hand, it can be assumed that the development will become denser.
One possible approach is to equip tall buildings with mezzanines that have green and open spaces in the future. Smart cities are also characterized by energy-efficient building use. Ideally, everything meshes together.
