The chance of rain today is 60 percent. ” What do we do now? Pack your umbrella or not? 60 percent sounds pretty high. In such a case, most would reach for the kid in the morning. Better safe than sorry. If it stays dry after all, we tend to A: to “magical thinking” like little children (“Sure, only because I had the umbrella with me”) or B: to a little tantrum (“Is it just me who always sees things so black?”).
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Making the right decision is difficult
The fact that most of us don’t know what this 60 percent means exactly – namely: it will rain on 60 out of 100 days with such weather conditions – doesn’t bother us. However, the situation is completely different when we are asked to make decisions that could change our lives: which investment is the best? Which secondary school do I register my child for? Should I really be in debt for a semi-detached house on the outskirts for 25 years? Nobody knows what will happen in 25 years. The world could look completely different tomorrow morning. Or?
risk intelligence
“We’re constantly weighing risks, but psychological studies show we’re not very good at it,” says English psychologist Dylan Evans . The more complicated we find a choice to be, the more likely we are to listen to our gut. Without realizing it, when we think, we take shortcuts that “feel better” and let big numbers blind us.
The result: decisions that we more or less regret afterwards. Then the dream house is gone, the new job has been taken, someone else has long since implemented “our” business idea, and the spontaneous long weekend in Venice is fully booked.
Stop it. We can learn to assess risks better and live more calmly with uncertainties. Evans calls this gift, which everyone has but rarely uses, risk intelligence. “Put simply, it’s the ability to accurately estimate probabilities, whether it’s about life events or whether a piece of information you’ve just heard is correct,” says Evans in his book (“RQ Risk Intelligence”). , Droemer, 320 pages, 19.99 euros).
Test your willingness to take risks
Our test tells you how willing you are to take risks. Evans found: The test result, the personal “risk type”, depends on five confounding factors that always interfere when we are spoiled for choice. For example, we regularly succumb to the illusion that our actions are more influential than chance: if we tick the numbers ourselves in the lottery, we calculate our chances are better than if a computer chooses them for us, social psychologists have found. You can find our test here.
Train risk intelligence
Such distortions act like small weights that unconsciously distract us when weighing all the pros and cons. We either become reckless (“What’s supposed to happen?”) or despondent (“What can go wrong, goes wrong”). Either way, we end up with a choice we don’t like. On the other hand, those who train their risk intelligence develop a sure instinct for when caution makes sense and when a healthy dose of self-confidence is appropriate instead.
The right way to more confidence
Of course, nobody can do that overnight. But if we keep our opponents in check with the five strategies of risk intelligence , we become more confident with every decision. That doesn’t mean that our gut feeling is now obsolete. “Pure decisions in your head tend to go wrong ,” confirms Evans. And: risk intelligence does not protect us from mistakes. Rather, it shows us that there is no such thing as 100% certainty, while at the same time allowing us to recognize such uncertainties for what they are: possibilities. We’re starting to see risk as one side of the coin – the other is opportunity.
5 strategies for more courage
1. Strategy: Become a little statistician yourself
Disruptive factor: We don’t dare to question statistical information and, conversely, we shy away from making such assessments ourselves. However, researchers like psychologist Dylan Evans have found that if we practice counting like a statistician, we can significantly improve our risk intelligence.
What helps us: A simple method is to set a personal risk threshold for yourself.
Example: Should I ask someone out or not? Dylan advises, “I might say I only ask the person if there’s a 60 percent chance they’ll agree — depending on how urgent my need to date is.”
2. Strategy: Examine memory content more closely
Disturbing factor: When we are supposed to estimate probabilities, we usually quickly think of comparable situations that we have experienced ourselves or about which we, for example, B. have read something. But what comes to mind most quickly is usually not the best advice.
What helps us: Check your memories. Ask yourself: why am I thinking of this now? Was recently z. B. Much reported about accidents or unemployment? You’ll find that many fears (like fear of flying, worrying about losing your job) aren’t really based on fact, but seem so threatening because you’ve heard about them many times.
3. Strategy: Learn to endure uncertainties
Disruptive factor: Our brain is lazy and tends to think in black and white. It ignores nuances and fades out contradictory information. Better to make a quick (wrong) decision than live with uncertainties. And: Trust is good, control is better – but slows down the decision-making process.
What helps us: It is difficult enough – and a great success – to have your own thoughts, feelings and actions under control. Then trying to influence other people, the weather, the traffic situation or share prices in any way would clearly be too much, end up being overwhelmed – and is impossible anyway. Give up this “illusion of control”. This brings more serenity and opens up new scope for action.
Disruptive factor: How we deal with the risks and imponderables of everyday life also depends on thought patterns and “inner leitmotifs”, some of which we have adopted from our parents, relatives, teachers and other important reference persons: “Better learn something tangible.” – “Two are better than one.” – “Pride is rarely good.” – “Life is not a request concert”, etc. Such sentences influence us unconsciously when we are faced with a decision.What helps us: Imagine that for every important decision, your “inner team” comes together; different voices that all want to be heard. Let them speak, but always ask yourself: Who is actually talking now? Herself? Or your “inner mother”? Negotiate a compromise that everyone on the team can live with. Simply rephrase thought patterns that inhibit you – for example: “Sometimes high spirits is really good!”
5. Strategy: Don’t always assume the worst case
Disruptive factor: When we still lived in caves, a brain that always expected the worst was definitely a (survival) advantage. Not today. But we can’t really get out of our Stone Age skin. The best example of Dylan Evans: so-called “helicopter mothers” who would like to monitor every step of their children.
What helps us: switch off the internal surveillance camera. Does the son want E.g. climbing a tree or riding a horse for the daughter, do not immediately forbid (risk of accident!), but let them try it and stay close by. This also applies to adulthood. Have your husband book a tandem skydive. Maybe try it yourself. Anyone who pushes their limits from time to time uses their opportunities and at the same time learns to assess risks better.
